Predictions 2022
Predictions 2022 - all in one place
Washington DC
1 Jan 2022
Over the past few days I have made 3 postings on predictions for 2022. I think its interesting that by far the most viewed is the worst case predictions. Thats social media in a nutshell - designed to drive people to extreme content. Correspondingly perhaps, it is also what people seek. In any event, for my own future reference if nothing else, I wanted to bring them all together in one place.
Predictions I - Outlook and top line trends - this is a good example of anticipatory intelligence (* anticipatory intelligence explained here: https://contexr.com/j5-us)
Predictions II - Worse case Plausibilities - specifics and probabilities dawn from the overview
Predictions III - US domestic politics - Death of the GOP and Rise of Q Party - implications for US instability
Predictions I - Outlook and top line trends - this is a good example of anticipatory intelligence
Washington DC 29 Dec 2021
Last year I wrote on Jan 1
"Supporters of President so riled up by stolen election talk that risk of violence is medium and growing. On one side they will be seen as patriots, on the other, terrorists... China and Russia, taking advantage of turmoil in the US, will use every means and opportunity to assert their increasingly virulent interests through cloaked-warfare. The big question for 2021 is will they cross the observable war threshold?"
China and Russia delivered on this prediction but did not cross the threshold. The same Q still applies for 2022. The winter Olympics and the 20th party Congress will be breaks on PRCs actions.
Russia - I expect Putin will keep pushing the boundaries because Biden has shown only weakness. Will he strike? I'd rate it as more than less likely, however loss of SWIFT membership might be deciding factor against.
In the US, 1/6 was not a wake up call. Things continue to spiral. Picking the trigger is not as easy as this time last year. Inevitable claims of a false election in Nov? Shut down of the jan 6 committee? Indictment of FPOTUS? Things are at such a boil I cant see the situation waiting for 2024 to go critical.
This is the setting as I see it today--->
"In just twenty years, America has been deeply convulsed multiple times. Mass terrorist atrocities, long wars on multiple fronts resulting in humiliating losses and incalculable costs, a recurring global pandemic, mass deaths on a scale not seen since the first civil war, mass lock downs of the population, two economic depressions (2008 & covid), public debt spiraling out of control, and gross mismanagement of all these events by the political establishments of both parties; have combined to fundamentally destabilize American society.
In response, a kind of mass hysteria is sweeping America. This goes way beyond normative shifts that might be expected when just one of the major events noted above takes place. So many norms in so many aspects of American life are all being upended at once. The cumulative effect is the creation of a tinderbox of strife. All that remains is a sufficient spark. 1/6 was not sufficient. The overturning of the 2022 election based on unsubstantiated claims of fraud might be? Or it might be something apparently minor and unconnected to the big events of the day. A man in Tunisia set himself alight frustrated over his life as a street hawker. A tragedy for him and his family, it was not expected to shake the Arab world. Remember Hemingway. Revolutions come gradually then suddenly. America is on the cusp. Events are pushing on the boundaries of elasticity of society and the state to cope with wave upon wave of crises. The bands that hold us together are about to snap."
Source: Civil War II
Predictions II - Worse case Plausibilities - specifics and probabilities dawn from the overview
Prediction 2022 - Part II - Worse Case Plausibilities
Washington DC 29 Dec 2021
Prediction is complex but the diagram suggests ways to categorize degrees of possibility.
All of the following relate to domestic actions motivated by political grievance. Counter terrorism assessment methodology focused on al Qaeda can explain extant and growing domestic radicalization in the US. Related, the rhetoric and imagery of violence has flooded politics in 2021. This shift in norms will have consequences. A small but vocal and motivated segment of US population have become radicalized. Administration and DOJ asleep at the wheel.
Projected
-Imposition of the will of state electors over the votes of the public following Nov election
-Congress flips to GOP
-GOP leadership changes
-MTG becomes speaker - McConnell might just hold out, otherwise Cruz and Hawley will battle for top spot
-Jan 6 committee dissolved
-New investigations initiated - targets RINO ‘traitors’ and all other obvious enemies - proceedings loud, relentless, as bad or worse than Benghazi - all stagecraft not statecraft.
-Congressional efforts to have Jan 6 ‘political prisoners’ freed.
-Continued and more rapid erosion of key institutions - particularly the military, DOJ and Congress.
-Incidents of collapse of civil society continue to escalate - school boards, airline travel, local government meetings, state legislatures (armed protests), any place where citizens gather to discuss government policies.
-Politically motivated lone wolf attacks grow
Probable
-Assassination attempt on Dr Fauci
-Timothy McVeigh style VIED attack aimed to trigger civil war
-Post Nov 2022 Anti-GOP “stolen election” riots and resulting crack down
-GOP splits into GOP under Liz Cheney and Q Party under MTG, Boebert, Gaetz, etc.
Possible
-Small cell attacks - this is important - if this happens it will likely be a key indicator of metastasized radicalization
-Assassination attempt on President Biden
Predictions III - US domestic politics - Death of the GOP and Rise of Q Party - implications for US instability
Why we will soon miss Donald J Trump
Washington DC 31 Dec 2021
The GOP is dead.
The party has been hollowed out by the rapidly metastasizing brain eating bacterial infection of the body politic, known as the QAnon movement.
Hannah Arendt in the >Origins of Totalitarianism< proves the power of movements over traditional parties at times of critical social pressure. Indeed, >Origins< is to democracy, what >Lets Go Europe< was to pre-digital travel on the continent - a vital guidebook for every aspect of the journey. (Yeah Im that old!)
The key question is when will the death certificate be formally issued? Likely not in time for the election. Which maybe America's last. The QParty might be saved by the bell.
The rump (sic) GOP is valiantly led by Liz Cheney. The QParty by MTG and her gang of attention... mongers. The angriest and loudest Karen of them all, MTG has demanded to speak to the manager. It worked. McCarthy has become functionally irrelevant.
The Q party is now bigger than Trump. He had to call on the new manager - MTG for help to prop him up when the mob turned on him. Vaccines are the third rail for the QParty. Trumps fumble on vaccines with Candi Owens and Alex Jones' reaction tells you all you need to know. As soon as he needed her more than she needed him - expressed in that moment - the die was cast. A day later, QParty channels flooded with "DeSantis - Owens" for President merch.
Old politics is gasping for air in the corner as it dies from its wounds but no one is looking over there. The Q party understands that politics has become poli-tainment. The acme of skill? Using social media to own the libs and get likes. The rest of the media ecosystem feeds off this. CNN, MSNBC, FOX and OAN all spend their top rated time on this nonsense because it sells. It also diminishes. But that is longer term and not on their monthly sales figures.
Kicking MTG off committee assignments was the best thing that ever happened to her. She was freed up to keep screaming at the manager day and night. No one cares if she does not pass legislation. Anyone talking about that completely misses the point. The system has sailed way past the last channel marker with "normalcy" written on its sides.
The Q party is fully in charge. They rule by fear, threats and intimidation. They have silenced the old GOP most of which still does not understand what is happening. They are running the coup plots. They now control Trump. If you thought he was bad - buckle up!
LI Original