Ukraine is winning this militarily, politically and informationally..
Rushed Summary - will clean up later
Points
whole world on their side and not just tweeting support -
Ukraine has the WILL ... if America has leaned anything since Vietnam... will wins wars, not tech
Biden screwed up Kabul and invited trouble... I wrote a LOT about the at the time... BUT has has turned the game around completely..
Denial of enemy false flag through novel use of IO intel by IC will go down as one of the most spectacular successes of this episode - that has in turn
denied Puny ability to manipulate the will of his people and army... This is huge
Consequently they all see him for what he is and they all see his goals of breaking up the EU and NATO have been reversed and destroyed by a powerful unity that will last a very long time to come
Unlike Ghani, the guy in the hat, Diem and all the usual losers we tend to back, Zalenskyy went from comic to Churchill... leading from the front - not showy.. a leader... his reaction and IO was what caused the rest of Europe to get a back bone..
But not just him I saw another former President, Porachenko, in the street with a militia and an AK ready to go.
Germany cut off Nord 2 (when that happened I knew something new was going on)
sent arms (Germany never done anything like this since WWII - its that big for them)
Now promising $100bn fund for weaps
… even the always neutral Swiss have seized oligarch assets…
the neutral Sweds are dropping non-alignment and rushing to NATO -
SWIFT was triggered - this is economic nuke option
the ruble and bitcoin are in free fall…
all air travel is blocked..
oligarchs assets are being seized all over the world
one mega yacht sabotaged
oligarchs children, hookers and girlfriends are being told they are not welcome and bank accounts frozen
the Rus army cannot get fuel to its tracks - which are VERY thirsty…
they did not plan this as a war but a weekend at Bernies
They forgot that of all the Soviets the Ukrainians were the toughest troops in WWII... the Gurkas of the USSR..
the use of the cell phone is stunning and multi layered and global
huge assaults on Kiev keep getting promised and nothing…
Man portable anti tank and anti Aircraft missiles are POURING in….
So far 5000 brave Russians are in prison for protesting…in 4 days... that must have some limit…
Russian soldiers are saying they were told they were on exercise not going to war…
China wisely sat this one out in a wait and see... they will bend with the wind
God even Turkey might close the Black Sea - exactly how I am not convinced..
Puny is so desperate he’s talking nukes.. his generals WILL NOT let him destroy the country as a huge fuck you as he goes out the door - just like hitler tried… he will try but they will not agree… Hitler orders Paris to be burnt to the ground and his general there did nothing.
A big assault is supposedly planned on Kiev in next 12-24... as was the case last few days... could be propaganda.. if you look at his column - its all on the road for miles - that is NOT how you do maneuver warfare..
Therefore, based on all of the above and much else I have not added... Putin has spectacularly miscalculated and is possibly already in the end game.
There were reports he fired Gerasimov which turned out to be unfounded... but if there is any smoke to that fire it could signify - he prefers his dacha and Bentley to scorched earth and a cell in The Hague... It only takes one to resist... and that opens the flood gates
Also this is solid
Long Live Ukraine!
Update - 28 Feb 22
This is a good strategic and ops round up - addresses what I did not which is a switch to mass indiscriminate shelling of urban areas. Still, that has issues too.
Economics
The FT has a good economic round up. The gist is Russia has $600billion in reserves to resist initial economic impacts.
Since that was published, the Russian economy has been completely severed from the world - including access to these reserves. This is unprecedented.
The banking restrictions are arguably the most serious form of economic retaliation yet approved by Western powers in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. They are aimed at preventing Putin from using his sizable financial reserves — totaling more than $600 billion — to stabilize the Russian economy in the face of other sanctions and economic measures imposed by the West.
“In one fell swoop, the U.S. and Europe have rendered Putin’s war chest unusable. … That the U.S. and Europe have done this in unified fashion sends a crystal-clear message that Russia will face dramatic costs so long as Putin’s war of aggression continues,” said Edward Fishman, former Russia and Europe sanctions lead at the State Department. “This action represents a sea change in U.S. and European strategy. Just 72 hours ago, a step like this was unthinkable.”
The oil giant BP said it would “exit” its nearly 20 percent stake in the Russian energy company Rosneft. BP has the best strategic analysts money can buy (my firm contexr.com is available chaps) they have made a judgement on who will ultimately prevail here and which side of history they want to be on when trading resumes. And its not Putin!
Russia’s budget breaks even when the oil price is at $44 per barrel. The sanctions noted above has a special provision
The United States said it is also simultaneously issuing an exemption allowing “certain energy-related transactions” with the central bank of Russia, as the West has tried to continue the flow of Russian energy exports to sustain the European economy and maintain gas prices.
Putin will have no choice but to trade. It’s hard to know how much the war costs Putin on a daily basis but it would have to be in the vicinity of billions. [If I can find good numbers I will add them - Readers if you have a reliable source please send in]. With the economic hammer dropping on the Russian people they are not going to be happy with this useless war of choice against people they see as brothers and certainly not at this cost. Global isolation is now to the level that Russian aircraft can’t fly anywhere worth going to and even Fed Ex and UPS wont deliver packages to the country. Its hard to see how this is sustainable.