ASSASSINATION - in 2025

Keep your enemies closer

Washington DC 8 JAN 2025

I was asked yesterday by maga friends if Trump will face more assassination attempts. I explained that a lot of powerful people would benefit from a Trump assassination. However, it seems to me he is of secondary importance compared to the first buddy.¹

Elon strikes me as a much more likely target. Outside of his propaganda bubble he is universally hated - a trend he is doing nothing to reverse. On the contrary, he is doubling down on the reasons to kill him and expanding the relevant audience of potential shooters. He's on a power trip for the ages meddling in the politics of the US and all of our allies. (Not our enemies it must be noted).

Following the popular assassination of the health care CEO, Elon does not appear to be able to read the room. While he is with Trump he is safe. But without secret service level protections he is vulnerable, especially to state based operatives.

One of the many parallels of this timeline to 100 years ago is the rise of anarchists. They take different forms but there are clear echos.

A crazed individual who wants notoriety would become eternally famous for eradicating Musk. The Lee Harvey Oswald of the 21st C. An attacker could come from anywhere on the political spectrum, from his new far right enemies against his H1 immigration plans to a radical trans assassin seeking “justice” against the hate he showered on his daughter, and by implication, the trans community.

All the financial market bounces since Trump's election would be thrown into chaos if Elon was killed. Bitcoin would crash. The stock market would be convulsed. Making that happen is a ticket to fame. The shooter would end up with a podcast and millions seeking a pardon on their behalf.

War Club

"I will go to war on this issue the likes of which you cannot possibly comprehend."

The first law of war club is don't declare war in advance of hostilities and never declare war unless victory is assured. Elon's power trip seems to make him think he is invulnerable. Not even Trump was invulnerable to an assassin. Rather than deter opponents from engaging in criticism - Elon's childish threat might be taken as a taunt. “The Elon challenge” might have already gone viral in the dark recesses of the web - stirring up something he can't control. Imagine being the one to “teach Elon a lesson”. Luigi who?

It gets worse

In time, the calls might end up coming from inside the house. The thing about totalitarianism and oligarchy is the latter is supposed to serve the former. If the oligarch becomes vastly more powerful than their political sponsor they run the risk of falling out of a ground floor window. That's the only way the political ruler can maintain control. They can't buy silence or obedience past a certain point.

Another way to think of it is would Putin ever let any one of his oligarchs become so powerful? No. Putin is the wealthiest oligarch in Russia. The next closest is not one man - but a group of competitors. Divide and conquer is how he maintains his iron grip.

Trump operates on the same principle. He is in a strange position of having an actually successful businessman suddenly burst into the scene - whose popularity meets or exceeds Trump's in some key demographics.

Worse, Trump is indebted to Elon. A debt he will refuse to pay - like all the others.

Trump already feels sidelined by Elon's rising star. His bizarro press conference was in part about taking back headlines from his oligarch in chief. It will not be long until he sees Elon as a threat to his control. At which point some maga fanatic will get the hint and take care of business.

Tread lightly Elon.

1. They were shocked when I noted the ear shooter was maga. Clearly that was hidden from them.