Geostrategic Significance of Historic Prisoner Release

Washington DC 1 AUG 2024

Congratulations to all involved in this stunning development. This is first and foremost a human tragedy turned into liberation and freedom.

Geostrategically, it has great significance. On May 23, 2024, convicted criminal Donald Trump made the following claim:

"Evan Gershkovich, the Reporter from The Wall Street Journal, who is being held by Russia, will be released almost immediately after the Election, but definitely before I assume Office. He will be HOME, SAFE, AND WITH HIS FAMILY," Trump said. "Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, will do that for me, but not for anyone else, and WE WILL BE PAYING NOTHING!"

This guarantee was not denied by the Russians.

How could Trump make this guarantee without negotiating with Putin? Such negotiations are a violation of the Logan Act (1 Stat. 613, 18 U.S.C. § 953, enacted January 30, 1799) a United States federal law that criminalizes the negotiation of a dispute between the United States and a foreign government by an unauthorized American citizen.

But that is not the crux of the story. Trump breaking yet another law rarely rises to public notice any more. There is a “put it on my tab” vibe to it all now.

Vladimir Putin no doubt did make the deal with defendant Trump. He also changed his mind and gave President Biden (and by implication, democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris) a major political victory.

But why?

Putin has been counting on Trump to return to the Oval Office and enact his plans to save Russia from losing the war in Ukraine. Trump, Vance and maga legislators are all on the record enthusiastically pledging (and in congress, moving legislation) to cancel aid to Ukraine. Trump has also been quoted directly multiple times saying he wanted to terminate NATO when he was in office (and got talked out of it) and that he will act on that impulse when he returns to office.¹ With no guard rails, none of his weird plans will be stopped. Hurricanes better look out! DEFCON 1!

Putins actions today reflect his conclusion that Trump will not win the election.

Putin is now desperately hedging with the prospective Harris Administration. Not by direct negotiations in violation of the Logan Act, but by indirect signaling. This mass prisoner swap was a global bullhorn as far as diplomatic signaling goes.

We can now anticipate further efforts by Putin to attempt to change the dynamic of Russo-American relations. It wont work because Putin is now in a position of significant and deepening disadvantage. The accumulating consequences of his epic miscalculations, both in the war with Ukraine, in his dependence on Trump to deliver salvation, and his dependance on lesser autocrats for munitions and money, has already resulted in Russia becoming the subordinate dictatorship among the top two axis powers. Xi is the winner of the Ukraine war. Putin even had to go cap in hand to Kim Jong Un for bullets while he depends on the Iranians for drones. Putin cannot replenish destroyed weapons or soldiers at a sufficient rate to win. Worse, the central bank just raised rates to 18% to curb the inflation that inevitably follows all of his compounding policy disasters. The clock is running out on Vlad and he knows it. Hence the sudden shift to Harris.

Felon Trump and his disastrous VP pick, Vance, are making unforced error after unforced error in the campaign. In a matter of days, they have been whipsawed from almost certain victory after the made for TV assassination attempt (with its attendant religious iconography) to almost certain defeat when the subject of all their narratives departed the race in favor of an electric politician who is breaking all records from fundraising and mass volunteers to sheer energy and momentum.² Felon Trump is now the last geriatric standing. Thats not good when your entire narrative is against frail, weak, confused, old men.

Does this mean Putin’s troll armies will switch support to Harris? Or that Facebook and Twitter will suddenly be flooded by happy Harris memes? Not on your life. At least not from Moscow - traditional memetic supporters of Trump campaigns. Besides, Kamala has an organic meme army that is in overdrive. Putin will continue to hope against hope some miracle might put his puppet back in the Oval Office. This period is so volatile you never know what black swan might happen next… real or conjured by Vlad or maga.

However, this prisoner swap is a huge recalculation by Putin and Trump should be terrified of its consequences.

1. He has also implied the opposite but thats his propaganda style to give allies ammo to cover over his actual plans. The old “oh he didn’t mean that” or “it was only in jest” defenses that even the main stream media seem to have picked up on.

2. This is not so suggest the assassination attempt was fake. It was a national catastrophe. It also portends a potential dire future crisis if the USSS cant lift its game in a few short weeks between now and the election. However, from the vantage point of political campaigning, especially given the religious fundamentalism in his base, it was mana from heaven. Just google the “flag angel”.