Predictions for 2023
Washington DC 10 Jan 2023
Primary Focus
Civil War II’s (CWII) the book and the substack you are reading, is concerned with what has become a Right Wing Extremist (RWE) insurgency in the United States. It has deep historical roots and has been given a huge boost by the Trump Administration and subsequent coup attempts. As predicted by the book, the insurrection has mutated into an insurgency that remains primarily political in character with attendant sporadic acts of violence. The arrest and/or indictment and/or conviction of the leader of the Trump insurgency/terror network will trigger spontaneous outbursts of violence. However, CWII assesses that transition to an uprising leading to a civil war of the kind experienced in Northern Ireland or Iraq (at opposing ends of the spectrum) has decreased from likely to remote.
However, perhaps paradoxically, incidents of spectacular RWE terrorism will rise in 2023 and reach a crescendo in 2024. This is because the RWE movement understands it is facing a closing window of opportunity and has become more desperate to try and snatch victory from the closing jaws of defeat. Support for RWE is slumping and the leadership, particularly in congress and the bureaucracy, need chaos and violence to distract the system from holding them personally accountable.
The most dangerous threats, defined as those capable of imposing a lasting political impact at the expense of the constitution and law and order, now come from inside the legislature, judiciary and bureaucracy.1 Insurgent actors in these institutions will continue to work together to impose their extreme radical vision on a largely unsuspecting public that assumes J6 was a one off event that has been soundly reversed and defeated. Regrettably this is not entirely the case. The insurgency is on the decline but a race is on to revive its fortunes before its leadership is incarcerated.
Summary
The following is a one page summary of CWII predictions for events in the United States for 2023. Further down this page, CWII presents a deeper analysis with detailed reasoning behind each of the predictions offered. Many of these are supported by assessments released on this substack during the course of 2022.
A separate edition for related international events will follow.
Methodology
The matrix applies the same assessment terminology and methodology used in prior predictions (see below). There is a sliding scale of potential, moving from projection to probable to possible. This reflects data availability and analytical probabilities that become more variable over time and subject to changes that can not be predicted because key surprise events have not yet happened. Wildcards can and do happen and they impact projected trajectories in unanticipated ways. For example, in 2022 the midterms were a major upset. This is discussed in CWII 2022 predictions self-assessment score card published in the final days of December.
Detailed reasoning behind each prediction
PDF available here
UPDATE - 17 JAN 2023 - Trump Terror Network Strikes Again
A Trump candidate for elected office conducts politically motivated violence campaign - otherwise known as terrorism - against Democratic officials in NM.
This was all predictable and predicted. It's the start not the end. Its a logical result of the political culture where leaders attack people and their followers ... follow.
NYT Gift Article (paywall removed)
Republican Ex-Candidate Arrested in Shootings Targeting New Mexico Democrats
The authorities in Albuquerque said that Solomon Peña, who lost his bid for a State House seat in November, was behind a series of recent shootings targeting Democratic elected officials.
CWII invites comments from readers. Please also make suggestions for elements that might have been missed in the assessment. Please remember that the international edition of CWII predictions for 2023 has not yet been released.
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An assessment of the insider threat in the national security bureaucracy will be published shortly. It explains some of the reasoning elements contained in this assessment where the bureaucracy is mentioned. The bottom line is there is a radical maga element in the bureaucracy that is working against the constitution. We have seen glimpses of it in the activities of the US Secret Service in relationship to J6 - something CWII has written about extensively. See below. It is imperative that maga cadres are removed from the bureaucracy before they can cause more damage than has already been the case.
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