The Traitor Has Multiple Escape Routes from Justice
The Traitor Has Multiple Escape Routes from Justice
Washington DC 14 June 2023
The espionage case is now underway but it now depends on a loose Cannon.
Trump has the following escape routes:
Cannon declares a mistrial if jurors can not agree.
Cannon delays the case past the election, Trump wins and throws out the case.
Cannon delays the case past the election, another GOP candidate wins and pardons Trump. All have promised to do so, debasing themselves, democracy and the rule of law.
Trump is convicted in the espionage case, the election goes to Biden and Maga kicks off a second “stolen election campaign” culminating in a J20. Trump is installed as “President” and pardons himself.
Trump is convicted in either federal cases (the other being J6) and the Supreme Court overturns on appeal.
Trump is convicted and pardoned by a GOP president in 2024.
Trump is convicted and pardoned by a GOP president in 2028.1
One thing is important to recognize. Trump’s conduct as outlined in the espionage indictment, which is well supported by documentary evidence including Trump’s own words, put him in a unique category of Americans who have done grave harm to the United States.
In fact, he is by far the worst traitor in American history because of his past position, authority, conduct, and direct attempts to overthrow democracy. All activities that continue to this day. The Lincoln Project summarizes this well here:
The Trump Terror Network
This rubric outlines the breadth and depth of the Trump Terror Network, its enablers, and active supporters. The passive supporters number in the millions.
All are constantly incited to anger and violence by right wing media that has been exposed by the Fox crisis as the antidemocratic agitprop it self evidently has been for decades.
Last July CWII speculated on likely Supreme Court responses to protect Trump based on its completely unhinged rulings of the past year and the unethical if not illegal conduct of its members and their spouses.
That was written with the J6 case in mind. Despite the extraordinary evidence amassed by the J6C, that case is not open and shut. Defenses exist, particularly under the 1st Amendment and executive privilege in the context of Trump’s Mob-boss public statements.
The chance that this Supreme Court upends the rule of law is high.
However, now that seditious conspiracy has been proven among low-level Trump operatives, and many more further up the food chain have flipped - WH Chief of Staff Mark Meadows - or turned on Trump in the J6C proceedings - including his treasured daughter Ivanka (who famously saved herself by admitting she agreed with Bill Barr that her father had lost the election) - the chances of a conviction grow.
So far the inner circle, Giuliani, Stone, Bannon, Powell, Eastman, Clark, Thomas and the Maga caucus etc, have not been indicted. The equal protection clause demands all of these coup conspirators must be charged for their crimes, given the lower level putschists have already been convicted on the same charges. The leaders must be held to account.
The espionage case is much tighter than the J6 case. As the indictment makes clear, Trump admits possession of classified documents and acknowledges he did not declassify some of them. As President, he cannot declassify without a process - that is absurd. The admission just speeds things along by removing a bogus line of defense. Indeed, it is hard to see what credible defense remains. The testimony of his lawyers regarding his attempts to obstruct is particularly compelling.
For those not up on the issues and the propaganda push back from desperate Maga apparatchiks here are a few salient points:
Presidential Records
Fact
The act says explicitly that the federal government “shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession and control of presidential records.”
Trumpist interpretation
Kash Patel, a lawyer who Trump wanted to make Director of the CIA and who instead was made a senior DOD policymaker in the dying days, delivered his interpretation thus :
“The president can take whatever he wants when he leaves office. It transitions from being U.S. government property to the personal, private property of the past president.”
Former AG Bill Barr
Mr. Barr swatted aside that argument on Fox, calling it “facially ridiculous.”
When you lose Dershowitz and Turley you know you have issues:
Alan Dershowitz: “It is the kind of evidence every defense lawyer dreads and every prosecutor dreams about,” the retired Harvard law professor wrote of Trump’s recorded admission of unlawfully possessing highly classified documents.
Jonathan Turley: “Some of the evidence is coming from his former counsel, and these are very damaging statements made against him,” the Fox News legal analyst said, referring to notes made by one of Trump’s lawyers, in which the former president plots to obstruct a government subpoena. “All the government has to do is stick the landing on one count, and he could have a terminal sentence.”
Incredibly, even if convicted, Trump still has multiple escape routes, as noted at top. Consequently the threat to American national security will remain extreme until such time as Trump and all high level co-conspiracists are safely behind bars. The good news is the DOJ has made progress. The bad news is it may not be enough to cover all extra judicial avenues still open to the Terrorist in Chief. A future GOP president or more likely the debased Supreme Court can still save Trump and further imperil American democracy. The implications for national and global security will be dire. This is why Putin hangs on in Ukraine. He knows Trump will give him Ukraine on a platter.
CWII expected significant violence at Trumps arraignment.2 Thankfully that did not happen. Does that mean the Maga fever has finally broken or is it the calm before “the final storm” they all want so desperately? With a bit more time to organize, for example, around a conviction of the Leader, will that become a new focal point or does the pathetic crowd in Miami tell the story? One thing is certain. If the remaining hierarchy of the J6 seditious conspiracy are all charged then it will be possible to say that the constitution has been properly observed and served.
Quick overview of the reporting and analysis of Civil War II over the past few years leading to this moment
In retrospect, it’s remarkable to think that it took about a year for the initial J6 reporting to coalesce into a picture that demonstrated a highly orchestrated attempted coup. This CWII assessment was confirmed in all respects a year later by the superbly detailed and conducted JC Committee.
CWII was also interested to explain for readers how normal people could lose their minds
and how US norms have rapidly deteriorated - particularly in politics with elected members of a major political party calling for violence on multiple occasions
!["Ultimately, our Second Amendment rights protect [us from] Democrats"](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_140,h_140,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a640c24-1cd2-4380-827a-f8a3ad8c794d_902x902.png)
and the compromise of our national security institutions, current,
and future.
Other cases continue to loom on the horizon: J6 attempted coup; Georgia attempted coup (which reporting suggests has become a RICO case that under GA law can be national in scope); the on-going NY cases both criminal and civil. Of course, state cases can not be pardoned by US presidents, only by state governors
Text of a Substack Note on the topic
As for violence.. I think there is a very good chance.. NYC is a fortress.. the NYPD is bigger than the dutch army 35K+ and a blue strong hold. Miami is the opposite. FL is MAGA ground zero. Police force is only 3000 - they will be augmented by feds but still… FL is permit-less concealed carry - so anyone can walk around with a concealed gun and thats totally legal. They may set up a “gun free” zone around the Courthouse… not sure how that would work.
Vehicle attack: I saw civilians driving multiple Humvees outside MAL yesterday… the protest route.. Compared to anything other than a dump-truck, even a civilian Humvee is a heavy combat vehicle that could mow down people… and bust through barriers. As far as I have seen they have only put up police tape - no barricades.. thats a BIG mistake.
All the usual suspects from congress through to chat rooms are demanding violence… coms traffic “the chatter” is just the same as pre J6… Trump himself put out “Rally invites” - all that was missing was “will be wild”..
So the conditions are there like last time. ONLY difference that I can think of is insufficient time to organize… He put out will be wild on Dec 19., 18 days before J6. This time its only been a few days. But unlike DC and NYC, they don't have to bus in maga - they are everywhere in FL… If not this time then sentencing will surely kick off. But the supreme court will overturn any conviction and thats a long time off. The potential for violence will have many more opportunities.
Follow up text of a Second Note on the subject:
Crowd is tiny. Nothing like a repeat of J6. I cant see it turning violent in any meaningful way as I previously outlined it might. In fact, I thought it would. I am glad to be wrong.
Why no J6 scale reaction? Maybe not enough time to organize an attack. Maybe the IO campaign to counter Maga violence has worked. Maybe those not deep in the Maga base, the Maga outer rings are accepting the case is legitimate? Hard to imagine but there has to be some explanation.