Midterms - Fascism out - 3 Way Fight for Future of GOP
Civil War now unlikely
Washington DC Armistice Day 2022
The only way to read the result is that it is a massive repudiation of fascism.
In a stunning upset, American fascism received a major setback in the mid-terms. However, it is not yet dead. A lot is going on in right wing circles and there are a lot of questions about the future of fascism. Murdoch has turned on Trump before and then reversed course. The GOP has turned on Trump before and then reversed course. The fanatical MAGA base has never turned on Trump. That is his weapon against those who seek a new direction. There is no straight line here. This assessment will explore some of the twists and turns that lie ahead.
One thing however, is clear. Thanks to Gen Z, the threat of fascism in America has gone from 99% to about 10%.1 They are the new greatest generation. They stopped fascism in its tracks. By fighting it at the ballot box they saved the country from certain violence and possibly decades of authoritarianism. They have also saved Ukraine, Europe and Taiwan from certain defeat. Taken together, Gen Z just saved millions of lives. They are the true heroes.
This clip from MTG ally Nick Fuentes, shows what the new greatest generation - Gen Z - has saved America from becoming.
Results still coming in
If the GOP manages to clinch the House, it will be by such a thin margin that there will be no way they can claim any kind of mandate. In fact, given the economic situation, the President’s approval rating, the fear mongering, the constant flood of disinformation, and the gerrymandering, the fact that the GOP does not have substantial majorities in both houses is an astonishing result.
If the pro-democracy party somehow manage to cling on to the House (the Senate looks good), then America will be spared the extremist show trials, the impeachments, the actual witch hunts, all in the service of vengeance and protection of The Leader from justice. As Civil War II outlined just days ago, the agenda of the fascists would be pure cruelty without limits. The ‘enemies of the state’ would be shut down leaving only the fascist disinformation machine running full time to find “enemies” to be fed into the wood chipper. That would have been the end of democracy in the United States of America.
Winning the House with no mandate will put the fascists in an interesting position. Will they go full steam ahead with the show trials and all the rest or will they demonstrate some self awareness, read the room, and tone it down a bit? Will the traditional GOP start pushing back against the fascists within? Already the in-fighting is getting brutal but so far it is only media deep. The question is will it last this time, or will Trump rise up from the depths and take the party back yet again - as happened within a week to two of J6?
Winning the House with no mandate will put the fascists in an interesting position. Will they go full steam ahead with the show trials and all the rest or will they read the room and tone it down a bit? Will the traditional GOP start pushing back against the fascists within? Already the in-fighting is getting brutal but so far it is only media deep. The question is will it last this time, or will Trump rise up from the depths and take the party back yet again - as happened within a week to two of J6?
Coup part II - Elect election deniers
Trump’s fascism mesmerized and energized the base to extremes. That was useful if they were able to translate all that energy into a successful coup. They came incredibly close on J6. It was clear on the day how genuinely shocked the storm troopers were that their QAnon dream was coming true right before their very eyes. They were stunned they could penetrate the building and came so close to assassinating key members of continuity of government of a superpower. They were in the vanguard of “the storm” Q said would happen that day.
Their proximity to complete success, the subsequent total absence of consequences for the leaders of the coup, inspired the movement to go all out at the next critical way station towards completing the coup - the 2022 midterms. They decided, rightly, the best strategy was to renew the fake ‘slate of electors’ strategy. The top-down approach failed on J6 thanks to Mike Pence. That is why the fascists wanted to hang him. This time, it would be implemented from the ground up. That meant that they had to legitimately win the midterms to enact the plan.
The House and Senate were secondary to the real targets in the election - taking control of the leavers of power of the state election apparatus.
The House and Senate were secondary to the real targets in the election - taking control of the leavers of power of the state election apparatus. Their paramilitary program of fear, intimidation, and violence since J6 advanced this goal. It scared off good, dedicated, hard working citizens, mostly volunteers, who for years had quietly served the electoral process without incident.
But paramilitary attacks alone were not enough. They needed Secretaries of State and Governors to declare their elections compromised, override the votes, and send their own slates to Washington. This they had to do via elections - post J6 there was no other pathway to the coup. Recall that Hitler and Mussolini used elections to get their foot in the door.
The critical step in the midterm political plan was placing election deniers into positions to control future elections, particularly in marginal states where Trump lost last time. Kari Lake and Mark Finchem in AZ followed the plan to the letter, promising before the election to overturn any outcome other than the one they wanted, this year and in the future. Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels, explained the premeditated fascist game-plan “Republicans will never lose another election in Wisconsin after I’m elected governor.”
The strategy was successful in general but a failure in particular. While a huge number of deniers are projected to win, for example 71% of House Republicans, the gubernatorial and Secretary of State wins are in red states where there is no democratic vote to overthrow.
Coup Part II - Unexpected failure
So far, in the most critically important states needed to overthrow the next election the pro-coup Secretary of State replacement strategy has failed spectacularly. Arizona and Nevada have not been called but are looking like they might follow pro-democracy wins in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Time reports that
the vast majority of America First Secretary of State candidates were defeated by either pro-democracy Republicans in GOP primaries earlier this year or by Democrats this week. As of midday Thursday, just one of the 17 candidates endorsed by the coalition, Diego Morales in Indiana, has prevailed.
Where is the fascist push back?
One would expect that their response would be to start screaming from the roof tops that all of the elections they lost were stolen. At the time of writing, this has curiously not yet happened. The one exception being Kari Lake.2 However, so far, all the usual set pieces we would expect from the fascists in response to this election outcome have not happened.
In fact, quite the reverse. Fascists have been conceding, their echo chambers are questioning why they lost, and some have even gone so far as to point their fingers at The Leader.
Here one of the most extreme fascists, Wendy Rogers, says that the election has caused her to begin to get some perspective. She has begun to wonder if she has been in an echo-chamber? What incisive self actualization!
So why are they not pushing election denial this time?
So why are they not pushing election denial this time? This might be because they do not want to undermine any wins they do get by claiming the elections are rigged. However, logic and consistency have been completely absent in their messaging so far, so why would that suddenly matter now? Another reason might be its just delay. Once all the results are in they will kick off a big ‘stolen election’ propaganda campaign just in the seats they lost. This would be in line with past fascist practice.
After all, on its face, the election of election deniers is an oxymoron that the fascist voodoo shamans have trouble spinning even for the most gullible audience on earth. If you believe Hillary eats babies and hold month-long vigils at Daley plaza waiting for JFK to arise from the soil to lead MAGA to victory, there is nothing you wont believe.3
It is more likely that they really believed their own propaganda and thought they were going to get a red tsunami.
It is more likely that they really believed their own propaganda and thought they were going to get a red tsunami. In fairness, that was not a completely stupid assumption given all the economic factors running hard in their favor. This would explain why their pre-election preparation of the cognitive battlespace with fake ‘stolen election’ psyops was largely muted. They didn’t want to undermine what they assumed would be the massive win of election deniers.
Having failed to salt the psyop ground in advance, their continued psyop silence, and devastating losses in key positions to overturn future elections, the fascists appear to be in genuine shock. They do not yet know how to process the outcome and what courses of action would be best for them to take. So they are road testing some ideas in the media. When they do this, sometimes they even speak the truth out loud.
Having failed to salt the psyop ground in advance, their continued silence, and devastating losses in key positions to overturn future elections, appears to have the fascists in genuine shock.
As often happens when their guard is down, they are letting slip some interesting insights. Fascist mouthpiece Laura Ingraham had ‘a moment’. She admits they lost and honestly discusses some of the causes. It almost sounds like she is accepting some responsibility for the fact that fascist extremism didn’t not work.
Former RNC Communications Director, Doug Heye, self-immolates when he tells Fox viewers, unaccustomed to facts, one of the many reasons the fascists failed: too many fools were jammed into the clown car to crazy town.
This is one of CWII’s favorites. Lt Gov of VA, Winsome Sears, cuts straight to the chase and orders Trump to get off the stage. She is spruiking her boss, Presidential aspirant, Glen Youngkin, and by association, herself as a future VP.
Just wait until The Leader discovers a black woman is giving him orders! Like all black people in MAGA, aka “my African American”(its always property with Trump), Sears is just about to find out what happens when you are no longer of use to the powerful. Her dreams of being a Vice President just died. No matter what happens to Trump, he will never let go of this particular betrayal. The great grudge holder, misogynist and racist, will constantly attack Sears to his dying breath.
"We'll have so much winning, you'll get bored with winning"
Rest assured, the masters of the conservative universe are working hard to decide what to do. Their choice is not as simple as picking Desantis and moving on. It is more complicated than that thanks to the impact Trump has had on the GOP and what he and his followers have done in the name of the party. The right is set to fracture in public with implications that go beyond Desantis.
By the way, ‘masters of the right’, does not mean The Leader. He was always a puppet for Putin and domestic powerbrokers like Rupert Murdoch, Peter Thiel et al.4 The Leader is in complete meltdown. It’s a delicious pleasure to finally see some consequences peek into the swampland castle as the Mad King Ludwig phase gathers steam.
His lame attempt to reclaim relevancy, dodge prosecutors, and enact vengence on his mounting list of enemies, by declaring for president next week will be a guaranteed dumpster fire. It will be all the same stuff all over again. MAGA go to all the rallies like groupies to hear their favorite band from back in the day do all the classic hits. But the majority of the country has heard it all before and are over it. The midterms prove that beyond any doubt.
The donor class, the true masters, have always hated Trump and had their doubts about his ability to deliver what they want - autocracy where they are firmly in control including over an obedient puppet. Trump was easily manipulated by empty flattery, or when convinced an idea was his in the first place, and could claim all the credit. But he never took orders well. Far too much of a loose cannon for all the money they pumped into him. Oligarchs hate it when they don’t get the exact result they paid for. Trump’s inexplicable successes and multiple last-minute rebounds always saved him from Rupert delivering the definitive final blow - “you’re fired”. Just maybe, this time the fascist fever is starting to break. But don’t count on it.
Just maybe, this time the fascist fever is starting to break. But don’t count on it.
Still, the masters are sending a clear signal that they have had enough of the clown show. The WSJ headline expressed elite frustrations in a way sure to hit Trump hard - in his boundless overinflated flabby ego:
It was part of a coordinated program of 6 op-eds slamming Trump to the financial classes:
The proles got their own marching orders from the front office:
None of this is good for Trump. But he is far from finished. Like the monster in the B grade horror flick, just when you think he has finally been stopped, he suddenly pops up with his knife and attacks. Even if his ability to directly control politics is removed from him, he will continue to impact the culture until long after he dies. His long lasting political legacy might be destruction of the GOP with no suitable substitute left in its place. In the long view of history, his caustic effect on the culture may only be matched by his destruction of conservative politics and its relegation to an unelectable minority status for a generation.
Last August Rupert attacked Trump and anointed Ron Desantis as heir apparent - and nothing came of it.
Don’t be overawed by Rupert turning on Trump. He has done it in the past and it had no discernible effect. Thereafter Rupert’s programming returned to supporting the monster he and the other networks created. The moment of criticism did serve a purpose. It put Trump on notice that his masters were growing disgruntled with his stupid culture wars that entertain the proles but don’t deliver what they really want - genuine power and control. Oligarch criticisms do not matter too much so long as Trump maintains his grip on the fanatical base that he and his masters created together. Besides, fanaticism generates a lot of money. Sensible, balanced, factual, reporting and analysis does not.
It also has to be recalled that right after J6, everyone turned on Trump and turned right back to him again. McConnell, McCarthy, Graham, et al all made heartfelt speeches that repudiated fascism. When the base did not budge, they were kneeling before him all over again out of fear.
It might have finally started to dawn on MAGA die hards that Trump delivers a perfectly consistent performance. As a loser. So far, MAGA fanatics have not taken to the streets in any great numbers because the fascists didn't prep their dittoheads with stolen election propaganda in advance.
Some of them have even conceded their races which is a new development that undermines “the narrative”. That does not mean the dittoheads can not be whipped up into a frenzy. They are dupes and rubes who will respond to the pavlovian bell. But for that to happen Rupert Pavlov has to change course back to supporting Trump again and doubling down on all the crazy stolen election narratives and related insanities. As of publication, he has not done this nor shows signs of a change.
But it could all change on a dime. Remember, they need the dittoheads for ratings, which is another word for income. One thing Fox obsesses about is ratings. If the oligarchs get too far out ahead of dittohead loyalty to the oligarch’s puppet, and propaganda can’t force a change in loyalty quickly enough to change electoral fortunes (deep psychological and cultural change take time), the oligarchy will continue to be stuck with the puppet.
Even the almighty Rupert has to be a little cautious with how far he pushes a new agenda. There is a shift underway in his messaging since August, but it might need a few more massive failures for Rupert to fully break with his monster. These could take the form of indictments, but they will likely cause dittohead loyalty to surge in support of their victim/strongman. Infighting between Trump and Desantis, anti-Trump propaganda messaging, and another lost election in 2024 may be enough to break the spell. Another election loss which is a loss of direct control of politics, will make Rupes hopping mad, especially if Bernie Sanders finally gets to tax the oligarchy!5
Rupert's earlier criticism in August was limited to one or two voices in his newspapers - not a hugely relevant medium outside of daily media agenda setting. This time Rupert has launched saturation coverage in newsprint. Another big difference from August is Rupert has permitted a considerable degree of on-air TV criticism from within the Death Star.
But a full court press on TV has not yet happened. That would be the turning point.
But a full court press on TV has not yet happened. That would be the turning point. Therefore, we are still in the ‘trial balloon’ phase of fascist messaging. As Civil War II assessed in August, the canary in the fascist coal mine is Hannity.
The big pivot would be Hannity. If Trump loses Hannity he is toast and the signs are not looking good. Hannity is the Fat Lady - keep an eye out for his aria.
This judgement remains valid. Certainly the earlier criticisms of Trump and praise of Desantis have escalated in the wake of the failed midterms. Rupert is setting the table for Hannity to change horses but there is still plenty of time to adjust the propaganda line if the MAGA base does not budge from Trumps side. Make no mistake, this has nothing to do with Hannity - like all his the talking heads at Fox he is just a well paid dittohead - he will say exactly what he is paid to say.
If there is going to be a difference this time around, it will relate to the degree of fear of the mob that GOP elected representatives feel compared to their anger and frustration at the Trumpian perfect losing streak. Much will also depend on Desantis and his complicated relationship to MAGA. The course of events will also hang on whether the masters of the universe accept that a coup is now out of reach because of the midterms. Most importantly, the indictment Wild Card will likely complicate all of the above factors.
The One True Winner to Rule Them All
The only win for conservatives was in the state of Florida. The entire state turned red. It was a huge win for Ron Desantis. He reminded conservatives of something they had long forgotten due to Trump’s perfect electoral record since 2016 - what it is like to win. As the WSJ reminded readers:
Trump “has now flopped in 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022,” and has “led Republicans into one political fiasco after another.” The result should be a wake-up call to the GOP “before 2024”.
Desantis’ win, the failure to gain the promised 90 seats in the House, and in particular the key MAGA slots that would have been able to overturn future elections, was like a double dose of the smelling salts for the conservative movement. This is complicated by the fact that Desantis is only ‘kind-of’ MAGA. He is more MAGA than he is traditional GOP. The problem is he can never be MAGA. The right has not figured this out yet and when it does it is going to cause all kinds of unanticipated and unwanted ripple effects.
The problem is Desantis can never be MAGA. The right has not figured this out yet and when it does it is going to cause all kinds of unanticipated and unwanted ripple effects.
MAGA cannot be transferred to Desantis. Personality cults do not work that way. An equal problem is the old GOP cant be resurrected.
Trump’s corrosive effect splintered the right into a variety of antagonistic factions long ago. The split has been papered over by all factions because they realize that if they become separate parties, they will split the conservative vote and never be elected in a general election ever again.
The smallest faction is the traditional GOP (TGOP). Liz Cheney’s principled stance has clearly positioned her to be its future leader and Presidential candidate. The largest faction right now is MAGA. Both have insoluble problems that portent future strife.
On the surface conservatives have a simple choice - double down on fascism (MAGA) or a return to being a normal political party under Cheney (TGOP).6 But it is not that simple. Herein lies big trouble for the right. Returning to normal can’t be easily or quickly achieved. Trump’s damage to the TGOP (and the country) is profound. He has unleashed a very dark side to American society that many believed had been extinguished a long time ago. Ignorance, hatred, bigotry, division, are easily and quickly released into the wild, but take years of cultural change to put back into the bottle.
So even if a return to a strategy of legitimately winning elections was desired by a majority of conservatives, which it is not, its achievement would take years of diligent hard work in changing the culture of the TGOP and having that change be accepted by the pubic as authentic. It would require the party to publicly endorse the extant electoral system as valid and vote in favor of measures to strengthen it - at a minimum eliminating the possibility of fake slates being sent by the states to DC. There are many other needed measures - including reforming the electoral college, undoing gerrymandering, reversing voter suppression and adopting rank choice voting - all of which would vastly improve American democracy. But even a reformed TGOP would not adopt any of these, not even the bare minimum, without a powerful forcing function applied over time.
It is equally hard to see how MAGA moves forward. Many assume Desantis will be a much more effective autocrat than Trump because he is demonstrably more intelligent. The problem with this thesis is simple: MAGA cannot be transferred to Desantis. Personality cults do not work that way. They depend on a unique relationship between the people and the leader. These two factors are like a lock and key. One only works with one another. Even if the keys look similar, a different key may fit the lock but will never be able to turn the mechanism.
On the leader’s side of the ledger, the critical ingredient is not intelligence, money, social skills or empathy. Trump has proved that. The leader must have charisma. And not just any type of charisma. It has to be a destructive charisma. Among the people, the critical element psychological vulnerability within a majority whose extant prejudices are a match with the destructive leaders prejudices. These factors can still exist and not result in fascism. These have to be combined with a ‘conducive environment' - a moment or period of national crisis - to create what Ian Hughes called the “toxic triangle”. In MAGAs case, a ‘conducive environment' was created by covid lockdowns on the back end of years of failed wars and housing, jobs, financial crises and abandonment by elites in both parties.
The toxic triangle is not easily achieved, nor replicated. It is unclear if all three unique factors still exist in a way that can keep MAGA alive - at least as it is currently constituted. If MAGA changes, then everything changes for Trump.
Trump’s attacks on the Bush’s and the Clinton’s exposed them and Washington DC and Wall St elites as one and the same, with a common enemy - the working class. Consequently, to the public, Trumps attacks were powerful and authentic.
Trump’s victim/strongman complex appeals to the downtrodden. He is their savior. Some take that literally - particularly religious supporters. They see themselves in him. Thats why their passion for him appears irrational to others. Because it is. It’s a deeply emotional connection created through identity formation. It has nothing to do with evidence based reality and logic. It literally defies logic.
Sometimes artists illustrate complex social issues with a clarity unmatched by anyone else. Here Dave Chappelle brilliantly explains Trumps allure to poor white people. [The film starts at the correct segment].
In 2015-2016 the toxic triangle came into powerful effect. The key fit the lock and unleashed fascism. The challenge for anyone, including Desantis, is he cant simply take over a personality cult that owes its allegiance to a different personality. While Desantis has modeled his politics, mannerisms, and speech patterns on Trump, his key will not fit the mainstream MAGA lock. This is because Trump has charisma and Desantis does not.
Trump has charisma. Desantis does not.
Desantis has no charisma at all. In fact, on a personal level, his arrogance, impatience, and vanity make him repellant. If Trump was a traffic cop and pulled a follower over for speeding, they would thank him for the honor of getting the ticket. If Desantis pulled them over, they would identify with him insofar as he shares all their bigotry and hatred for anyone who is not an old white man, but they would resent him for not letting them off the ticket. There is a subtle difference between the two types of relationships and it has nothing to do with intelligence.
For these reasons, Desantis can’t just be swapped in as the leader of MAGA. No one can be the leader of MAGA but Trump. Therefore, MAGAs existence is limited to Trump’s fortunes, and these are looking decidedly vulnerable to at least five threats.
Trumps 5 Threats
First, he is unelectable among the general population. This has been proven in 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022. Bar some bizarre circumstance, there is currently no reason to believe this consistent trend will be reversed in 2024. This is demonstrably not true of Desantis. A point he made below in stinging terms when asked about Trump’s attacks on him.
Second, America has resoundingly rejected fascism in favor of democracy. The public have shown that they see and understand the threat. They are less likely to ignore the ongoing threat in 2024 regardless of other circumstances, again bar something really extreme in fascism’s favor. Bad for Trump, but a modified MAGA in Desantis’ image might overcome this threat. It’s easy seeing the Desantis camp pinning all the blame for the failure on Trump and presenting Ronald as a new and improved version of Donald. But how can that work if a personality cult will not allow for a new leader…? see below.
Third, Trump’s masters have put him on notice on two occasions so far. He currently remains on notice and they have not yet reversed their anti-trump messaging. However, that could happen at any moment. Alternatively, they could decide to add fuel to the fire and just keep attacking Donald and supporting Ronald as the brave new hope for fascism.
Forth, there is about to be a lot of bloodletting among GOP leadership in the wake of this upset election regardless of which way the House goes. MAGA candidates have been calling the shots over the past 2 years. That tradition will continue at least for a while. McCarthy will never be speaker, or if that happens it will be very short lived. As CWII has suggested now for over a year, MTG is the #1 MAGA powerhouse in the legislative branch. Her fortunes in the next Congress will be a key indicator about the fortunes of MAGA. Had the red tsunami taken place, MTG would be Speaker. Period. Now things are a little different. Much depends on when the GOP-MAGA split is formalized or if the competing factions can continue to pretend to be in the same party. Given the extremism on the MAGA side, the mutual enmity, and the shock of the election - it’s hard to see a formal split not happening at some point.
Finally, one of the many state and federal criminal investigations may arrest Trump at any moment and remove him from the chess board. This opens an incredible window of opportunity for all conservative anti-Trump forces to combine to eradicate him once and for all. They can blame ‘democrat prosecutors’ for the triggering event, thereby dodging the inevitable MAGA explosion, and quietly start a new narrative of “internal renewal” or some anodyne phrasing for the post-Trump reconstruction era.
This would be in the interests of a broad coalition of opposites - Desantis, McConnell, Cheney, even MTG. Each would get a new lease on political life and an opportunity to put their mark on the future direction of conservatism. The problem is when given gift horses like this in the past - the two impeachments - especially the one after J6 that they could have completely blamed on the Democrats - they caved. This was because they feared being primaried and further mob violence directed at them and their families. In the wake of these elections, with Rupert telling the mob Trump is a loser over and over, maybe these diverse and competing conservative ‘leaders’ assess those risks have declined sufficiently so that they can finally move against Trump?
If Trump is removed from the equation, whether by justice alone or with the support of other conservatives, MAGA has nowhere to go. What happens next is anyones guess and will depend heavily on the manner in which Trump is removed from public life. Given the high passions, crazy ideas, and fervently held grievances motivating MAGA, any disruption to its ‘stability’ should be expected to illicit a violent reaction of unknown degree, spread and duration.
Given the high passions, crazy ideas, and fervently held grievances motivating MAGA, any disruption to its ‘stability’ should be expected to illicit a violent reaction of unknown degree, spread and duration.
Many unknowns lurk in that scenario, but the key point is post-Trump, MAGA will have nowhere to go. Neither an outward explosion of violence nor an implosion of the movement suggests that MAGA's power grows.7 That does not mean it suddenly becomes irrelevant. It is a malignant genie that cannot die and will refuse to go back into the bottle. It will morph and shapeshift and take new forms. Its cultural power will be lasting but its politcal heft will diminish so long as it remains linked to Trump.
Where does leave fascism?
Oligarch backed fascism in America is nothing new. Few know FDR survived an assassination attempt and a coup that has incredible similarities to recent events. As in the past, fascism was a short-cut to total power to avoid the consequences of the shrinking appeal of conservatives among normies. If the oligarchs decide the fascist plot is blown beyond repair, they will dump Trump permanently.
The fascists overplayed their card - crucially before they took power. This will be judged their greatest mistake. Their passion went too far and turned into brutish arrogance. They scared pro-democracy Americans to turnout the vote. That, in turn, ended the possibility of completing the coup via electoral means. Candidates for governorships openly saying there will be no more elections when they win was a classic example of crazy town overconfidence undermining the coup.
That was not the only example of corrosive truth telling. Senator Mike Lee is filmed here explaining to an older crowd that he will terminate the entitlements they have spent their working lives contributing towards! Even more insane, they all applaud! MAGA might happily spike their followers life-long payments into social security, but the rest of self interest-aware America said “hell no”. The abortion issue also proved to any doubters that when the fascists say they will do something, even if it seems completely stupid and unpopular, they will do it. [One thing that amazed CWII is this clip did not get much play. It should have been on blast all day every day.]
Pre J6, fascists were willing to ignore their own declining election outcomes because they were planning to get rid of elections all together. In fact, they saw themselves in a race against ever greater demographically-driven election losses and had decided ending democracy was the solution to maintaining power. They understood that extremism depended on the fervent support of agitated followers who were blind to facts.
However, without control of all the state election machines, a future coup would have to rely on propaganda to keep MAGA stirred to action to continue the years-long slow grind of bottom up positioning for future Secretary of State and Governor elections, to then attempt to complete the coup. It’s highly doubtful the fascist rank and file or their masters at all levels have the patience for this long game.
Oh the Ironies
The fascist experiment has eroded the future ability of the traditional GOP to credibly do what it should have done all along - the hard work of broadening its appeal. Following Mitt Romney’s loss to Obama in 2012, the GOP engaged in a serious and detailed review of its philosophy, operations and messaging in order to understand how it could strengthen its brand and start winning elections again.
The result was a 100+ page Growth and Opportunity Report that blew the lid off the declining appeal of the party and outlined what must be done to change its fortunes going forward. As Jennifer Ruben prophetically observed at the time
To the surprise of many, the report is controversial and bold, not the usual political pabulum... It directly calls on candidates to embrace a more voter-friendly, practical appeal to problem-solving, with an emphasis on upward mobility. The RNC is taking a risk here, one that in my mind is badly needed. If the GOP remains stagnant on message, policy, appeal and mechanics, it will atrophy as a national party. If it cannot connect with Americans, offer something for Americans of all backgrounds … it will, like the Whigs and other extinct political parties, go out of business. (Emphasis added)
In other words, the GOP realized that to remain viable it should have become “woke”. CWII agrees with Ruben that there is a space for an inclusive conservative party that genuinely embraces free markets and laissez-faire economics; civil liberties under the rule of law with an emphasis on limited government, economic & political freedom, personal responsibility, and support for democracy everywhere.
Instead, it did the exact opposite of what the report recommended and the inevitable result was Trump and the rise of fascism. After the Trump catastrophe, shifting to a “woke” GOP in an electorally relevant timeframe will be mission impossible.
There is a much more likely outcome that could either destroy conservatism for a generation or make it an electoral juggernaut.
There is a much more likely outcome that could either destroy conservatism for a generation or make it an electoral juggernaut.
More Splits on the right?
The traditional GOP has a MAGA problem, and MAGA has an emerging leadership problem. As noted above, in 2015 the GOP split into traditional GOP and MAGA. Also noted above, the MAGA personality cult cannot accommodate competing personalities or the loss of the boss. MAGA is Trump and Trump is MAGA. The massive failure of MAGA in the midterms, the oligarchs and their propaganda machine turning on Trump, the threat of Trump’s arrest, and MAGA’s predictable explosion into violence in the wake of Trumps’a capture, all point to a crisis for MAGA.
CWII assesses that, faced with all of these cross cutting challenges and pressures, there is a strong chance MAGA itself will likely rupture into two parts. The Donald and Ronald MAGAs.
Donald MAGA will collapse into its own self-pitying agony loop of recriminations. Ronald MAGA will go on a political offensive.
Donald MAGA (DMAGA) will collapse into its own self-pitying agony loop of recriminations. It will be the modern equivalent of ‘the lost cause’.8 The die hards will make up the bulk of a split MAGA and will cling on to Trump no matter what. They will be unable to move on from their grievances which will only dramatically intensify when The Leader finally faces consequences for his multiple crime sprees. They will be constantly sad and disgruntled. They will be very unpleasant people to be around, their inability to face facts and evolve will be incredibly annoying, and they may occasionally engage in sporadic violence.
Ronald MAGA (RMAGA) will go on the political offensive. The MAGA splitters, the much smaller but politically active faction, will want to continue “the fight”. They will seek a new leader who can translate their bigotry and hatreds into political power. Trump did that once, but he now appears to be incapable of replicating that one-off success. RMAGAs realization of this fact will hasten the split. The big election winner for the conservatives is Ron Desantis. He will be the new leader of the active political force that will be left over from the MAGA split.
Desantis and Cheney?
His challenge will be to take on the traditional GOP led by Cheney. That leaves two options, fight or join forces. If they fight, the right will be split for a generation and become electorally impotent. In a 3 way election between a Democrat, a TGOP and a RMAGA, the democrat would will win every time. This would be a fitting consequence for conservatives who have turned the country upside down with their experiment in fascism.9
If they are smart and can learn to stomach one another, Cheney and Desantis could forge some kind of coalition. Cheney is a liberal darling right now, but her issue was with Trump trying to end democracy. The liberal-Cheney alliance was always only the enemy of my enemy is my friend. The same will be true of any alliance between her and Desantis. Her politics have not changed. She has a lot in common with Desantis on the issues and together they would make a new force on the right that at least would adhere to elections.10
Together they could be a powerhouse. But they would have to agree who would be on top of the party and a future presidential ticket. A Desantis - Cheney ticket is highly plausible and could be electorally potent. Especially among independents and even some liberals who are sick and tired of identity politics all the time at the expense of kitchen table issues.
In a choice between oblivion and an uneasy alliance that might really win big, the answer seems pretty clear. So long as those two powerful egos can ride together into battle.
Wildcards
All of the above is vulnerable to wild card events.
Speaker Donald J Trump
The most extraordinary would be the GOP winning the House and nominating Trump as Speaker. It would throw all his enemies off balance. But it would not protect him from imprisonment. Only executive privilege can do that. If the GOP had the votes in the House and Senate and successfully impeached the current Presidency, as they were eagerly planning to do, as Speaker, Trump would have regained executive privilege as next in the line of succession. Without a chance of the vote in the Senate, this option is thankfully off the table.
Nevertheless, the Speakership would confer other significant advantages to Trump. The Speaker controls the agenda of the House as well as committee assignments down to room assignments. He would put the chaos machine into overdrive, “flooding the zone with bullshit”. AOC and members of the Squad would be told no office space exists for them. Trump would impeach the Presidency, AG, and all other impeachable enemies. He would default on the debt ceiling - just because. He would defund Ukraine. He would probably defund the military until it dropped “woke” policies. He would propose insane legislation that would play well in the culture wars. The list of insanity is as long as your imagination is deep. All of these tactics would delay and distract from the work of state and federal prosecutors.
The Speakership would also be the perfect perch from which to initiate a second J6-style uprising. The Speaker has a high degree of control of events at the Capitol. He could stage any number of “cover” activities that would draw the MAGA Army to the District - maybe to support an impeachment vote or some other constitution-threatening spectacle the details of which Eastman and Clark are busy cooking up in the shadows like they did with the fake slate scam that no one saw coming.Desantis does not contest the 2024 Primary
George Conway made a compelling argument recently that the most logical move for the 44yr old Florida Governor is to avoid confrontation. There is no upside in alienating MAGA. Instead, he should support Trump for 2024. That way he would get Trump on side again, serve out a full term, build his war chest, and then coast to victory in 2028. Conway stressed that the ‘logical’ course of action is not necessarily what will happen. It would be ego v logic. These are politicians we are talking about!
With Trump looking weak, Desantis might look weaker if he refrains from attacking. If he attacks and fails, Desantis will be done for an election cycle or two. His position is not so simple as people assume. There is risk involved at every decision point. If CWII had to guess, if Desantis can do some kind of deal with the donor class desperate to dump Trump, he will challenge for 2024. Possibly with Cheney as outlined above. A lot of ‘if’s in that outcome but it has a lot of merit for all concerned.
Where Does That Leave the Potential For Civil War - the Subject of the Book behind this Substack
The chance of the insurrection transforming into an insurgency - the premise of CWII will always be there. But the threat is now acute rather than systemic, because of the impact of the midterm elections. How MAGA responds to Trump’s downfall will be a critical issue. Everyone now knows where the country stands in relation to fascism. It has been repudiated in a major way - but by the slimmest of margins. Had that not been the case, the analysis of the book would be even more pertinent in the wake of a fascist election win.
Now, CWII assesses the danger of the fall of the United States into a fascist dictatorship has suffered an incredibly powerful set back and is now rated as unlikely - all due to the election. In particular, the failure to secure control of state election organizations, gatekeeper positions, people and processes, has blocked the only remaining pathway to successful completion of the coup - at least in a relevant timeframe.
This stunning victory for democracy will force conservatives to reform themselves in order to become electorally relevant. The critical point is whatever form that takes, it will be within the boundaries of seeking and gaining power through legitimate elections. There will be echoes of election denialism and spikes in pro-fascist rhetoric and sporadic violence. Culture takes a long time to change and heal from huge setbacks such as those suffered by the United States in recent years. But a descent into an insurgency seems significantly less likely today than it did last week.
Thanks to democracy, democracy has a future. Fascism likely does not, unless some extraordinary freak event changes everything.
Update 18 NOV 22
The assessment above asked the following questions:
Winning the House with no mandate will put the fascists in an interesting position. Will they go full steam ahead with the show trials and all the rest or will they demonstrate some self awareness, read the room, and tone it down a bit? Will the traditional GOP start pushing back against the fascists within? Already the in-fighting is getting brutal but so far it is only media deep. The question is will it last this time, or will Trump rise up from the depths and take the party back yet again - as happened within a week to two of J6?
The answer so far from the congressional caucus is clear - they have learned absolutely nothing from the election and they are doubling down on the show trials and insanity. This is their plan:
They have adopted this strategy because, as CWII has been saying for over a year, MTG is in charge in that branch of government. She is already the power behind the throne. Whether she sees the advantages of making McCarthy a puppet and target for things when they go wrong, or whether her ego demands the limelight, will shake out soon enough.
MTG is a classic example of the “Dunning Kruger Effect”. The idea is you have to be minimally self aware to be able to assess your impact on others. Stupid people do not have the capacity for this thought process. So they are unable to “read the room” and adjust their behavior to be less objectionable and repulsive to mainstream society. MAGA are co-sufferers of DKE. Their basic operating system appears to be stuck at playground levels of development where zero-sum games of “owning” others is their only goal. Thus MTG is their leader. Because they all live in a fact-free upside-down world, they are incapable of learning. The election outcome was a huge wake up call to normie GOP people - but they are an ever-shrinking group.
The only thing that will impact the thinking of DKE MAGA is a shock. It turns out, the election was not shock enough. Perhaps only a landslide at the next election with key MAGA ‘leaders’ losing their seats might do it. Or the imprisonment of The Leader and subsequent cases against his Congressional lapdogs? As they are in charge of the House there will be no corrective mechanism there - except perhaps their own bizarre behavior. These people are not normal. While the violence will be minimal, compared to the assessment, the conduct of the House republicans is on track to be just as CWII predicted recently:
In the short term, the biggest domestic danger is to gamesmanship with the debt ceiling. They are so ignorant of financial and international affairs they will happily burn America to the ground to “own the libs”. In strategic affairs, the defense of Ukraine and Taiwan, by association, will come under fire. Putin will be delighted with his MAGA creation, saving his regime at the last moment.
Talking in percentages is stupid but its a shorthand in this instance.
The one exception being Kari Lake who claimed that she would only accept a win and started squawking about election fraud before the election even started. That was predicted.
Whoever made this stuff up must have laughed their asses off when all the dittoheads latched onto it with religious fervor.
This is not to imply they all meet in a secret island cave and plot together. It is that their interests align and their subsequent actions are often complimentary. Putin’s machine works hard to influence all players, including Trump, Rupert, Thiel, Musk, and on down the list.
Secondary channels like Newsmax are insignificant compared to Fox - the Death Star of the MAGA propaganda machine. Newsmax, Brietbart, and all the crazy uncle sites can not move the needle. They have also been chastened by the Courts from their Gobels-like unquestioning backing of the clown car pundits. The comparative silence this time around from the clowns themselves - Alex Jones, Roger Stone, Giuliani, Powell, Flynn and all the rest - reflects the fact that they too have been put on mute by the Courts who have grabbed them by their wallets. And when you're a Court, they let you do it. You can do anything.
The traditional Republican Party used to stand for free markets and laissez-faire economics; civil liberties under the rule of law with an emphasis on limited government, economic & political freedom, personal responsibility, and support for democracy everywhere. These values are the antithesis of MAGA. Anyone clinging these notions automatically qualifies as a traitor among the red hat faithful.
This assumes that law enforcement does not join in the violent flare up that will follow Trumps impeachment, arrest and/or conviction. CWII has written extensively on the politicization of the United States Secret Service, which it now appears was an active and passionate participant in the coup on J6 and has struggled to cover up its involvement. Big problems like these do not just disappear. But they need a degree of public passion and support to continue to grow and fester. Post mid-terms the trends are in the opposite direction. However, it must be remembered, once Trump is held accountable that could change. This is why Trumpism’s legacy of American political instability is so dangerous to the country.
Notable here is the fact that Robert E Lee fully accepted responsibility for the outcome of the war, refused to enter into an insurgency against the North, and was an advocate for moving forward with the North. He had a built-in personality cult that he refused to indulge for political or personal purposes.
It’s impossible to stress enough how close the US (and through the US, the world) came to the end of democracy and the empowerment of extremists everywhere. MTG and other MAGAs are on record saying they want to hand Ukraine over to Putin. That would enable that genocidal maniac to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, thereby perpetuating the Putin regime indefinitely. That outcome would encourage China to invade Taiwan safe in the knowledge that American under MAGA would take no action. The follow-on implications for what’s left of global democracy, trade and finance, are too dark to ponder.
Unless of course the oligarchs attempt to revive the coup but Cheney will not be on board for that. So if Desantis and Cheney join forces and then split we will know why. This is highly unlikely.