The Triumph of Hate

Putin Wins the Cold War Afterall

Washington DC 6 Nov 2024

Despite promises of dictatorship, executions, a national abortion ban, the end of healthcare, social security, and NATO in the middle of the biggest war in Europe since WWII - instigated by Russia against the West - it turns out being female is considered a greater threat.

American democracy just voted to terminate itself. What an achievement! Surpassed only by the Weimar republic. It turns out we were not exceptional even in death. The combined wisdom of the founding fathers was not enough to stop a game show host from setting their parchment on fire and subjugating ‘by, for and of the people’ to the rule of ‘ME’ - 'I am the state'.

History does not offer an uplifting happy ending that Americans crave at the end of dramatic movies. The arc of history has not always bended to justice and sometimes the bad guys win. This is just such a time. Unlike earlier periods, the power of the state, aided by surveillance capitalism, is so total that resistance will be futile. Externally, there is no greater power able to invade and restore democracy like we did to Europe in the 1940s. “There is no America to save America” ©️ CWII. Having voted to never have a vote again, that wish will be honored. Imagine Nazi Germany with a nuclear monopoly and control of social media in 1933.

I used to think that had Mike Pence been assassinated as Donald Trump had planned on J6, maybe the public might have woken up. Now I realize they would have enjoyed seeing his silver hair slumped on the rope as his long lifeless limbs swayed to the poking of the bloodthirsty mob. The people at home quietly celebrating. The Secret Service can't arrest them all. They are the majority now.

Tom Nichols in the Atlantic echoes this sentiment. He writes

Americans who wish to stop Trump in this assault on the American constitutional order, then, should get it out of their heads that this election could have been won if only a better candidate had made a better pitch to a few thousand people in Pennsylvania…

No candidate can reason about facts and policies with voters who have no real interest in such things. Racial grievances, dissatisfaction with life’s travails (including substance addiction and lack of education), and resentment toward the villainous elites in faraway cities cannot be placated by housing policy or interest-rate cuts.

Americans have done this to themselves during a time of peace, prosperity, and astonishingly high living standards. An affluent society that thinks it is living in a hellscape is ripe for gulling by dictators who are willing to play along with such delusions.

History suggests the following direcast is on the cards. It won't happen in a year. The first two years will be an exploratory period to see just how far everything can be pushed before anyone dares speak up. Then the fledgling retribution will really intensify. The line will be pushed further and so on. If you know the power of the US state you know, like I do, that nothing can stop it except itself.

That suggests a coup. Alas the only kind of coup likely to emerge is internal to get rid of the flaccid bumbling geriatric and replace him with the oligarchs choice: Vance or whatever his real name is. He is the costco sub contractor Peter Thiel has sent to do the labor on site while Pete drives the investments on the back end which is in fact the real front end. Not that a wage laborer about to lose their health insurance who voted for this could work that out.

Nor will it only be state authority. An army of maga Karen's will take to the streets enforcing ‘local rules' - “we don't like your kind here - move along” will go from occasional bad experience to neighborhood policy. Red hats will replace brown shirts or the morality police in Iran. A mix of ultranationalism and Taliban-like theology has already emerged and will now step into the daylight in control.

The domestic economy that had just been stabilized after the lagging effects of covid will be gutted. Costs will rapidly rise with tariffs. Inflation inevitably follows trade wars. Unemployment will follow inflation. Taxes will rise for the middle class further eroding their buying power, slowing the economy further still. An economic spiral beckons. As someone lamented on Twitter, the Dems have once again just fixed the economy and handed it over to those who inevitably destroy it.

The economic change will be the first of a number of concentric and mutually supporting spirals. The populations of the West have not known great power war for two generations. They are about to get a shocking reminder.

I have British friends who are enjoying the panic on the American left like it's a tv show. They don't see how Russia has been empowered against their own country just yet. The same Russia that used WMDs on British soil and has used London as a laundromat. It will take time for Russian sabotage operations to intensify to the point pain will be felt (they recently set a nuclear sub base ablaze - good bye AUKUS!). The British military is at its smallest and weakest since possibly the Napoleonic wars. It's reconstitution can't possibly be done in time. They do have one safeguard. Trident. After decades of perceptions of “waste” the UK will finally understand it's value. Much as the poor Ukrainians who gave up their deterrent in exchange for American guarantees have recently discovered, losing the final guarantee for words is not a good bargain.

Domestically, Trump will honor his campaign promises. The election will be interpreted as a mandate for the full smorgasbord of solutions. With full immunity, there is no limit on what's coming. The supreme Court will be stacked even further. All the federal cases will be dismissed. States will likely drop their cases in fear. Jack Smith, Gen's Milley, Kelly, and all the other enemies are in genuine danger. At a minimum they will lose their jobs along with tens of thousands of apolitical civil servants who won't swear allegiance to Trump. At a maximum they will be test cases for the public's appetite for public executions.

The media will comply or have their licenses revoked. They will all become a version of Fox News and try to outdo each other in the lurch to the right. Self censorship will race ahead of state censorship.

The DOJ, IRS, FCC, all rule imposing mechanisms of the state, will all become a party apparatus, as in China. We have always had crony capitalism and corruption. There will be no pretense now. It will be unrestricted oligarchy. A Mafia system. Trump will finally become really rich. Putin rich.

Internationally, Ukraine just lost the war. NATO was just terminated. Unless Europe takes up the challenge alone. If it does, it will face US sanctions. All US, Ukrainian and Five Eyes classified information is compromised. Putin and Netanyahu just got a green light to do whatever they want. China's position is more ambiguous until Putin changes Trump's mind to support Xi. That will come into tension with his plans for trade war. It's unsure how that will be resolved. No doubt payments, trademarks, and lavish praise will smooth all past disagreements. Eventually America will lead the axis powers against a rump NATO.

The power of America's example will embolden dictators everywhere - esp in places where they do not yet exist or hold power. So long as they pay tribute to Trump and/or Putin they will have free reign. The rules based order cannot survive when the greatest powers undermine it. In time, the result will be a neo-medieval dark age. Propaganda, utilizing mysticism and nonsense will replace science, logic and reason.

Accordingly, there will be a nuclear breakout. Who believes Trump will risk an American city to deter his pals Kim, Putin or Xi? South Korea is already 70% in favor of obtaining nuclear weapons because they could see America's return to isolationism (that has been growing since the mid “forever wars”). They will go nuclear followed soon after by Japan. In time, if China continues it's belligerence (and why wouldn't it?) and they feel abandoned by Trump's America, Australia will follow.¹

These are just the very wave tops of what history tells us is coming. It will start small and rapidly escalate because there will be no check on power. Not from the other two branches of govt. Not from the media. Not from the international system. America is too big to fail and it just did.

Always in politics ask who benefits most.

1. They have a huge territorial footprint, a small population with a powerful trade dependent economy. They have modernized and expanded their military but they can't meet China missile for middle, ship for ship, plane for plane, in their immediate approaches, let alone further north. China respects power. All AUS needs is a checkmate option - not a full triad survivable deterrent.