Trumpets Call for Civil War
Terrorist scenarios
Washington DC 9 Aug 2022
Extreme Danger
The United States has entered a moment of extreme danger. A search warrant has been executed at the home of a former president. It was approved by the judiciary exercising due diligence to determine that the executive branch had made a compelling case sufficient to justify this historic action. No one wants to be the FBI agent in charge or the Magistrate judge who got this wrong. They went into this knowing the consequences.
The stakes are extreme.
If major crimes are discovered and the former president is arrested there will be a spasm of violence. If nothing significant is discovered, the American fascist movement will be unstoppable.1 Its fury for extreme vengeance will spare no one and will last a generation at a bare minimum.
The rule of law has been abandoned by the American fascist movement. It is simply not interested in facts, evidence, due process, or the law. It has one operating principle - domination of its enemy. It has one operating mode - extreme emotion - antagonized by relentless propaganda. Their reaction to the execution of a legally valid search warrant was free of analysis or logic and full of lies, spin and incitement to war.
The response was a promise of vengeance
The rise of their Leader was premised in part on promises to round up political enemies regardless of evidence or due process. They endlessly chanted “lock her up” at rallies that had more than a tinge of Nuremberg about them. The Leader advocated violence as the solution for everything. He urged rally goers to assault a stray voice of protest in their midst, he instructing cops to injure suspects being put into cars, he demanded immigrants and protectors be shot, he wanted ‘leakers’ in his administration hanged as traitors, he saw brute violence as the solution to any issue.
After years of indoctrination, millions of his followers embrace violence as justified to protect him and the movement. Recent studies show how quickly fascists have moved to favor violence over political negotiation. The age of political differences of opinion that can be negotiated in good faith by people holding equal constitutional rights to assemble and speak is dead.
How did his movement react to the news of a legal search warrant? Uncritical, unflinching, automatic projection of all of their pent-up demand for extra-legal activity on their enemies. This was a ‘Biden raid’ to discredit their leader before the next election.
They are blind to the absurdity and illogic of this premise
Had this been purely political, Trump and his henchmen would have been detained on Jan 7, 2021. There would have been no 18 month delay between a violent attempted coup and an action of this kind. There would have been no need for a J6C. There would have been no agonizing national debate about the consequences of enforcing the law, with serious consideration of turning a blind eye against the crimes being committed by a corrupt elite in the interests of national unity. The round ups would have been immediate and total. Trump and all of his family would be in jumpsuits. We know this because that is exactly what the fascists are promising right now. In fact, this is what they have been promising since long before the FBI arrived at Mar-a-largo.
If they get their way, it will be like watching a real life version of the Tom Cruise film Valkyrie as the antifascists are rounded up
On the evening the news broke, thought leader Laura Ingraham promised revenge attacks across all branches of government. There will be round ups and perp walks of the Joint Chief’s of Staff, the leadership of the DOJ, the J6C, and anyone else deemed an enemy.
Putative future House Leader McCarthy directly threatened retaliation against the Attorney General. During Watergate, republican leaders eventually went to the White House to inform Nixon he no longer had their support. The interests of the country superseded their possession of power. That party is dead. The fringe now dominate the center. American fascists are now in charge.
This is unabashedly a party of “Might Makes Right”
In the most ludicrous rant yet, Bannon fears that the deep state will assassinate Trump.
Trump White House assistant to Peter Navarro, Garrett Ziegler, targeted FBI officers for attack.
“This is one of the two feds who signed the ‘Receipt for Property’ form, which detailed—at a very high level—the fishing expedition that the FBI performed at Mar-a-Lago,” Ziegler said on both Truth Social and Telegram.
Even before the FBI search, they were outlining their plans for political vengeance
Since J6, almost on a daily basis, the fascists have been issuing threats to round up ‘enemies’. There has been a lot of QAnon inspired talk of executions. This is an important point to remember: political opponents are characterized as enemies. Often “evil” enemies. For a religiously driven base (“al Qaeda” in Arabic) an evil enemy cannot have any rights and must be stopped at all costs. Anything is justified under such conditions.
They promise to immediately arrest Jan 6 committee members and conduct show trials. They will start impeachment proceedings against Biden and Harris. They will arrest Hunter Biden.
This is not Normal
The reaction to the search is not normal. Quite the opposite. In the past 24 hours there has been an explosion of extremist demagoguery demanding violent solutions. Actions are sure to follow.
Normie Americans dismiss all of this talk as showmanship and posturing. They have been too busy paying their mortgage and making sure they get the kids to soccer practice to have noticed just how far political discourse has shifted towards violence and extremism. Normies are the gently boiling frogs of American civic life. The slightly uncomfortable warm water is just about to start to bubble. They will get a nasty shock when the next J6 happens - especially if it is on a scale resembling an Oklahoma City bombing or 9/11.
Civil War is Trending
There has been a hard rhetorical lurch to the far right. This is the epitome of the erosions of norms often mentioned on Civil Wars II. The kind of rhetoric we saw in the lead up to J6 on fascist channels is now all over mainstream social media. Jack Posobiec told his 1.8 million Twitter followers that the “federal security state has declared war on Donald J Trump and his supporters.” The picture below captures the reactions of just a few mainstream fascist political leaders and B grade commentators in the first hours after the search.
“I already bought my ammo”
“Civil war! Pick up arms, people!”
“Civil War 2.0 just kicked off.”
“Let’s do the war.”
“One step closer to a kinetic civil war.”
The ideation in favor of extremism and violence is much worse inside the more restricted world of far right social media like the chans and telegram.
“Time to take the gloves off,” far-right activist and GOP congressional candidate Laura Loomer wrote on her telegram channel. “It’s been time. If you’re a freedom-loving American, you must remove the words decorum and civility from your vocabulary. This is a WAR! And it’s time to obliterate these communists.”
Vice news reports that
The top comment on the main thread about the raid on Tuesday morning was: “Lock and load.” In the same thread, another user wrote: “It certainly feels like they’re treating it as a hot civil war. When this is all said and done, the people responsible for these tyrannical actions need to be hanged.”
Propaganda
Fox and related propaganda arms are pushing pro-violence themes like FBI-Gestapo, banana republic, and related messaging. They know full well that the investigation into Trump is justified by his conduct and the DOJ is acting strictly according to law so as not to create grounds for criticism of politicization. Investigating Trump is a protection against becoming a banana republic, not evidence of its existence. Yet right wing media are boosting and amplifying instability programming in the same way a foreign intelligence psyops program would seek to undermine American democracy.
The outright incitement to violence being propagated by right wing media will push an unknown number of people from political support into violent action. They are playing with fire. Their incitement will result in deaths. The only thing we do not know is the scale of the destruction.
Vulnerable Population
After years of back to back crises (9/11, endless wars, collapse of the industrial base, 2008, covid), America has a general public vulnerable to extremist messaging. This is how Trump came to power in the first place. Some groups are more vulnerable than others. The neglect of America’s veterans is sickening and a deep wound on our national honor. Sure there is the requisite flag waiving, rote repetition of “thank you for your service”, and occasionally giving up a seat on a plane. That is better than being spat on, as happened in the 1970s. The problem is the gestures are not backed up by action. They are just that - gestures. Veterans see them for what they are, superficial and meaningless, and to some, even insulting. The recent fight to get basic services in the PACT Act is indicative of the struggles, and frankly abuse, veterans face. Since 2001, 114,000 have committed suicide. That is the equivalent of 10 Army Divisions. That is twice the combat losses in the war in Vietnam. When Kabul was handed back to the Taliban on the anniversary of 9/11 no less, it felt to so many that twenty years of sacrifice and death was for nothing.
One consequence of this history of mistreatment and moral injury is America has a population vulnerable to right wing media incitement, especially as it is always dressed in the flag and parsed in the language of patriotism. Veterans are being told that the cases against Trump are obviously political and even against the Constitution, triggering a visceral response from a group that swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution.
It is hard to estimate the number of counterinsurgency combat2 veterans among the 19 million Americans veterans alive today who have active duty service records. Assume the number is 1 million. Of those maybe ~0.4% might get sufficiently motivated to take up arms against the tyranny they are told is happening right now. Having ~4000 people who understand the tactics, techniques and procedures of mounting an insurgency, and who feel honor bound to resist what they are told is tyranny, is not something to be trifled with. But that is exactly what the right wing machine is doing right now to deflect attention from the lawful exercise of legal authority to investigate possible crimes.
This is an example of the kind of messaging that has been triggered on social media. Have a good look at that room before the video starts. That is a sad and lonely scene.
It is important to stress that this is not saying all veterans are mad or anything of the sort. As the disproportionate number of veterans in the J6 arrests lists attests, this is a vulnerable population whose patriotism and service are being manipulated by powerful forces who do not care about them as human beings - they just use them as pawns.
Ashli Babbitt
Ashli Babbitt is a tragic case in point. This is a video of a person who is deeply hurting. This is not normal. Nothing about this is normal. Ashli Babbitt was abused by a media-political system seeking to make a buck and create more “ditto heads” willing to agree to anything they say. It does not care about the impact it has on people trying to survive on the fringe - which by all accounts was where Ashli’s life was in the run up to J6. Anyone seeing this should have rushed to help her, not provoke her. Now, voiceless, they cover their shame and complicity in her death by making her a martyr for their cause.
Strategic Assessment on Violent Activity
Lone wolf attacks will happen almost immediately. Garden variety mass shootings will surprise no one. America is awash in that kind of violence already. The extant insecurity created by mass shootings helps set conditions for the erosion of stability. The systemic stress resulting from the search warrant will accelerate the instability spiral.
The key indicator of advancing insecurity will be the degree of organization behind the attacks and the support they receive from the political and media wings of the fascist movement, like those quoted above. Types of attacks indicating growing sophistication or coordination will include incidents like the Maga bomber “Cesar Sayoc” or the “Washington snipers”. The next level beyond that would be an “Oklahoma City bombing” VIED attack, likely aimed at the Capitol. Beyond that, look for multiple, coordinated, simultaneous, attacks at various locations. Left unaddressed, the spectrum of violence will sit somewhere between “the troubles” in Northern Ireland and the insurgency in Iraq circa 2006.
The crisis in the USSS that spread to other agencies suggests that basic assumptions about the loyalty of all law enforcement personnel to the constitution might now be misplaced. There is almost certainly a fascist splinter faction that until now has been passive. The evidence for which has been the startling coverup of participation in the attempted coup.
The stress currently being pulsed into the system, may provide sufficient grounds for loosely affiliated groupings to come together and start organizing a response to the next crisis. These sorts of things tend to require a spark. The execution of the search warrant is that spark. In all cases, an arrest would likely be the next trigger for extremists to transition from planning to operations.
The Captiol is the main target
The Capitol is to American fascists, what the Twin Towers were to al Qaeda - a symbol of the system they want to extinguish. Remember that the WTC was first attacked in 1993. AQ were intent on coming back to finish the job. If the Congress is destroyed or put out of action, its function - democracy - will also suffer. That at least will be the logic of the attacking paramilitary force(s).
Thanks to AQ, there is in fact a purpose-built hardened backup congress building in DC. Things will be really serious if it is also targeted in order to deny a formal place for the people’s representatives to assemble. Just as fascists politicians assisted their paramilitaries to conduct reconnaissance of Congress, they may also pass on details of the offsite. The system never anticipated that the threat would come from within. That is why it will be such a potent and difficult threat to counter.
Trump will fan the flames of war
On Jan 6, Trump’s former campaign manager Brad Parscale had an epiphany. He realized his professional life had resulted in supporting “a sitting president [who was] asking for civil war.” Trump has only two ways out of this crisis. Either the FBI has massively erred, in which case Trump will triumph and American democracy will be subsumed in his revenge. Or he attempts to trigger civil war: the ultimate distraction.
This is how to read events unfolding behind the scenes. The harder he pushes his grievances and victimhood, the closer justice will be to his door. He has already offered pardons to all who use violence to restore him to power.
His “will be wild” tweet was issued on the night of 18 December when the long drawn out fight in the White House to use martial law to seize ballot boxes failed. It was at that moment he then turned to J6 as his final act to stay in power.
He has prepared supporters and foes alike for conflict. As the walls close in on him he will directly call for war. This will be the Trumpian equivalent of the “Nero decree”. It would be irresponsible to assume that nothing significant will happen. There has been more than enough time for preparations to have been made for violence. The extent, duration and significance of which will depend on a variety of variables that are not all visible right now. Suffice to say that the level of energy among American fascists is remarkable.
Appeasement is not an option
The inevitability of conflict has caused some to fear taking action against the fascist threat. But violence is coming either way. If he is stopped there will be a spasm of violence - the kinds of operations mentioned above. Assuming the security forces do not split into pro and anti fascist groupings and expand the war, eventually the insurgency will be quelled. The shock at how close America came to becoming a forth reich will hopefully extinguish the powerful fascist urge for another generation. As difficult as that outcome appears today, that is the least violent possible future.
Some legal scholars are nervous about the precedent set by potentially prosecuting a former president. But the precedent set by giving him a free pass by virtue of his electoral history would be even more troubling.
The fascists have been preparing local, state and federal, options for overthrowing the duly certified outcome of future elections. The entire slate of the GOP in Arizona has pledged to give the next elections to the fascists regardless of the actual outcome of the votes. The same kind of provisions are being put in place in all ‘battleground’ states. Failure to challenge Trump, especially in light of all the evidence of the J6C and related investigations, would have spelt the end of democracy anyway.
Once they had full control through non-violent means, as the quotes above show, the retribution would have come anyway, just slower and with more pseudo-legal window dressing. With no power to check their growing lust for cruelty, that system would have resulted in widespread extra-legal intimidation, threats and violence. Imagine an unchecked MTG whose only limit on her innate extremism would be her conscience. That is not a world any sane person would willingly inhabit. But by then control would be firmly in place and there would be no choice in the matter.
The last option is by far the worst, most violent, and long lasting. The FBI fumbles the ball. Trump is vindicated in the eyes of his followers and becomes super empowered to attack all his enemies - real or imagined. He and his followers will go on a rampage of vengeance that will rapidly escalate and have no natural boundaries. Elections will be a thing of the past, there will be show trials, automatic imprisonment, and in time, executions for anyone deemed a traitor. Should this sound extreme scroll up a page and re-read the quotes presented. This is not a passing anger. This hatred has been carefully cultivated and curated for years. It has been designed for a purpose. Once it is unleashed there will be no bringing it back. England will not invade to restore order and bring democracy back to America.
The US and the world will slump into a new dark age ruled by violence and fear. Where propaganda dissolves truth and where facts and questions will not be tolerated. How do we know this? Because this is what happens over and over again in history when extremists gain control. There is nothing new here except to understand the predicament we are in and act to prevent catastrophe. All of the leavers will be gone if the FBI has made a mistake. There will be no second or third attempt to pin the many other crimes on Trump. This is it. We better hope they have not made a mistake.
Updates
11 Aug 2022
Attorney General Garland Addresses the nation. Compare his statement and how it is delivered against the comments of US Senators, Members of Congress, opinion and media influencers below. Ask yourself, who is more credible?
11 Aug 2022
As predicted above - not that one has to be Nostradamus.
For more about the short and his motives and support for him - follow this link.
11 Aug 2022
The Law and Order party, it leadership and propaganda machine are inciting their base. Messaging includes
Targeting a federal judge for assassination
No one is explaining the lawful processes to their audiences - they don’t dare. As on J6, Trump knew the mob “are not here to hurt me”. The mob will hurt any conservative political leader if they are not in complete lock step with the propaganda line.
Examples follow
Smears and barely veiled threats against a federal judge and the FBI
US Senators pushing extremism
Trumps lawyers pushing allegations they would never dare utter in a courtroom
Right wing anchors calling for purges
Members of Congress pushing for purges and round ups
Trump endorsed and backed fringe ‘authorities’ on terrorism saying the Biden administration has declared war on the American people
10 Aug 2022
Dana Milbank GOP hysteria over the Mar-a-Lago search is an invitation to violencediscusses the same themes and threats. “These are open invitations to the violent and the unstable to take matters into their own hands.”
This is an interesting psyops take on Fox pro-terror programming.
Counter-programing right wing pro-terror narratives
The Daily Show does some very interesting counter-programming of Fox propaganda
Civil War II assesses that the GOP has splintered into 2 factions.
The traditional Republican Party. The party that values free markets and laissez-faire economics; civil liberties under the rule of law with an emphasis on limited government, economic freedom, political freedom, personal responsibility, and support for democracy everywhere. In effect, its leader is Liz Cheney. It is a minority within the right.
The Fascists. Fascism has rapidly transitioned from the fringe to the center of the political right in America. They are led by Trump the victim-savior and a band of radicals in Congress. “Fascism is a cult of the leader, who promises national restoration in the face of supposed humiliation by immigrants, leftists, liberals, minorities, homosexuals, women, in the face of what the fascist leader says is a takeover of the country's media, cultural institutions, schools by these forces”. Trump fascism is driven by QAnon conspiracy theories and dedicated to violence as the solution to any challenge to its authority - which it views as absolute. There can be no dialogue with “opponents”. In a democracy the people are sovereign. In American fascism, Trump is the sovereign. Anyone who questions Trump, even right wing figures like Cheney or DeSantis, is an enemy of the state. American fascists use religious language and symbology to paint any alternative thought - even conservative thought (Liz Cheney) - as the work of evil that must be extinguished. Evil justifies violence. An eye for an eye and mob rule replace politics which, until now, was a process of dialogue between constitutional equals to resolve differences peacefully, by consent and compromise.
‘Combat’ meaning outside the wire engaging in counter insurgency operations, not base support personnel. These numbers are pure guesses. If anyone has credible data please put it in the comments.
A rough estimate you could use is that about 10% of deployed forces actually go outside the wire regularly to conduct operations (presence patrols, engagements, or combat ops). Something to keep in mind, too, is that that number includes repeat deployers. Those combat vets will likely be vastly more opposed than supportive of any fascist I surgery or civil war. The military demographic that will comprise the lion's share of any right-wing forces are going to come from the National Guard and Reservists and those vets who did 2-4 years and got out. The more senior vets that choose to join the fascist army will obviously form its initial cadre of leadership.
Thanks for 10% suggestion. Thats a worse tooth to tail ratio than I expected. Interested in why you think NG and reserve will be where to find recruits? I have a hunch but would prefer it unfiltered. Want to discuss MOSs too? I have a hunch on that score as well :)